the instruction is to 1. read the 4 classmate projects in attachement2. fill out the rubric for each project , (give grades for each project, do not need to write anything for this part, just highligh the rubric for each secton)3. write a 80 words review on each projectthe website discount coupon is not working, when you wake up maybe could you please check? i will place the order on the website later2017 Econ 103 – Sweden (July, 2016) – Faraz Mirza
Sweden’s Economy
The Kingdom of Sweden’s economy has generally performed positively over the past 10
years, based on the growth of three primary variables: its Gross Domestic Product (GDP),
unemployment rate, and inflation rate. As shown in the data provided by TradingEconomics.com
(figure 1), Sweden has been on a positive course of recovery from the Great Recession – which
caused a record low of -3.7\% in the 4th quarter of 2008 – by maintaining an average annual
growth of 4.3\% since the first quarter of 2009. I chose to use the GDP growth rate since the GDP
represents the aggregate market value of all final goods and services produced within the
economy, and because its growth rate is a reliable indicator of whether the economy is
performing well (producing more) or poorly (producing less). More specifically, analyzing the
growth rate using quarterly data allows one to examine the economy’s ups and downs, or periods
of economic expansion and economic recession (respectively), which further allows one to infer
where the economy may go based on the behavior of the business cycle in the short run. The
Kingdom appears to be amid a period of gradual economic expansion, with consistent minor
fluctuations following an upward trend.
Variable #1: Sweden’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Figure 1: Quarterly data of Sweden’s GDP growth rate (\%)
Additionally, I chose Sweden’s unemployment rate as a variable to further understand
other factors that influence its business cycle, considering a country’s aggregate economic output
is related to the amount of people employed to produce the output. Based on figure 2 (below),
Sweden’s unemployment rate fell to 5.2\% in the third quarter of 2008, one of the lowest
unemployment rates in the nation’s recent economic history. Coinciding with the Great
Recession the next quarter, the unemployment rate briefly climbed, but then began a steady
decline from 9.7\% as the economy gradually entered a proper expansionary period of GDP
growth in 2010. The correlation between the variables confirms their negative relationship, as
they reflect behavior typical of business cycles.
Variable #2: Unemployment in Sweden
Figure 2: Annual trends of Sweden’s labor force that is unemployed (\%)
Sweden’s inflation rate is also important to understanding the Kingdom’s economic
performance, since the prices of a country’s output are often closely tied to how much of the
country is employed (and therefore, producing the output). According to figure 3, the rise of the
unemployment rate during the Great Recession was shortly followed by deflation – a fall in
overall prices – within the economy, reaching a record low of -1.6\% in the third quarter of 2009.
However, after Sweden entered its expansionary period in 2010, inviting a rising GDP growth
rate and falling unemployment rate, the inflation rate started increasing very slowly in 2014 (as
expected), fluctuating in negative numbers from 2013 to 2015. Although the inflation rate
changed slower than one might expect, this is actually normal behavior within the business cycle,
since prices of the aggregate supply can be sticky, meaning they don’t adjust to changing
economic conditions immediately.
Variable #3: Sweden’s Inflation
Figure 3: Annual rate of Sweden’s aggregate market prices (\%)
Other variables that substantiate the three main indicators of the Kingdom’s economy, as
well as create a more in-depth understanding of its business cycle, include Sweden’s consumer
spending and retail sales. As shown in figure 4, the quarterly data of consumer spending is
antonymous to the nation’s unemployment rate, showing consumer spending decline just as
unemployment peaks in 2009 (since the absence of an income is bound to promote less
spending), but subsequently rising when unemployment begins to steadily decline . Further, the
negative relationship reiterates the correlation of economic variables within the business cycle.
Variable #4: Consumer Spending in Sweden
Figure 4: Sweden’s quarterly consumer spending rate (SEK)
Sweden’s retail sales are also cyclical by nature, coinciding negatively with its inflation
rate (as people are less willing to buy at higher prices). Based on figure 5, the Kingdom appears
to experience an increase in sales during every major slump in inflation (fourth quarter of 2009,
first quarter of 2014), and a decrease during every peak (third quarters of 2008 and 2011). In
addition, sales currently seem to be on a downward trend, while the inflation rate steadily rises.
Variable #5: Sweden’s Sales
Figure 5: Annual rate of retail sales in Sweden (\%)
Initial Development
Country of Selection: Greece
Module 1:
In a typical business cycle, it experience trough, expansion, peak, and recession. For the
five indicator I had chosen. I choose GDP growth rate, inflation rate, interest rate, unemployment
rate, and government debt to GDP.
I believe for GDP growth rate: it would be at the smallest growth rate when there is a
trough, than it increase during expansion. The growth rate would then approaches its max (peak)
during this cycle before decreasing again in a recession.
As shown from the picture below from Trading Economic, there is a dip in the GDP
growth rate during 2008 – 2010. Greece had a economic crisis during the year 2009, which send
its economy into a recession and its GDP plunges, which matches with my suggestion of
recession and low GDP.
For inflation rate, a general trend I had observed is that inflation rate matches GDP
growth rate. As shown here, 2009 have a low inflation rate compare to both of the other side.
Hence I would say that during a trough, the inflation rate hit the lowest due to the contraction of
money supply, and it grows when the economy began to expand, which allows more money to
flow through the market.
For the unemployment rate, I will also assume it would be similar to the two above. As
we can see below, Greece had relatively low unemployment rate until 2009, when it began to
concave up. As the date before, 2009 seems to be an important point as many things change. I
suggest that during a recession, the amount of unemployment raise as many firms began to cut
back, and when it is a expansion, the firms want to increase productive and would hire more,
reducing the unemployment rate.
For government debt to GDP, it had been steadily growing since 2009. It seems like
during the recession of 2009. The government debt begins to increase. Therefore it is safe to say
that during recession the government debt to GDP will grow, and during expansion, it will
shrink. This could be explain that during recession, government may need to spend money on
protecting industries from collapsing, which may further harm the economy.
For the interest rate, it also have the same trend at 2009, which now highly suggest that it
is the start of a recession. Before 2009, the interest rate is about 4 percent, which means the bank
want more money as bonds instead of cash. This is probably done to counter inflation and
overspending. However when the recession started, the interest rate drops. This is most likely
due to the bank want people to start spending and to stimulate the economy.
I choose the five variable, which are GDP growth rate, unemployment rate, inflation rate,
Government debt to GDP rate, and interest rate. I choose the five because I believe they
represent important information about a nation’s economic well being.
Gross Domestic Production growth rate represents how much a nation is producing
within it’s borders. It is important because it shows how much industrial strength the nation have
and how much influence it have on a supply market. I believe that a nation with positive growth
rate is in an expansion; when it is in a recession, the growth rate would either equal to zero or
decrease. By looking at the current state of Greece GDP growth rate, I would say Greece seems
to be around the end of a recession despite the oscillation between positive and negative rates.
The second variable I choose is the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate shows
how many people in the worker force are currently unemployed. Although the number maybe
manipulate due to the amount of possible discourage workers. It is still a good number to
analysis as it shows how many people who want to work can find work. Greece current
unemployment rate is about 23 percent. It meant that out of the worker force, about 77 percent of
people have a job. According to experts, it seems to be having a 4 to 6 percent is a health
unemployment rate, which Greece is far past it. This suggests that Greece is still struggling with
a recession.
The third variable I choose is the inflation rate. Inflation shows how much value the
money is in a market. For example, high inflation means that people value money very little.
This could give hints about how the central banks should respond to purchasing power of the
currency. The most recent inflation rate on Trading Economic shows that Greece have a -1\%
inflation rate. I would assume having negative inflation rate would mean it experience deflation,
which means the general price is reduced below. I would intrepid as part of government policies.
The government knows that most people are unable to afford the basic necessity so it lower the
price of the object by increasing the value of the currency. This also suggest that Greece is in a
recession.
The fourth variable I select is the government debt to GDP. This shows how much money
the government is spending compare to it’s earning. As we learn from the book, spending must
always equal to income. If the government spent more than its GDP, I would assume it had
borrow the money from somewhere else. I also assume if the government spend more than its
GDP; two different scenario may had happen. One is that the country GDP fall, but the
government still have money in the reserve. Second, the government have ran out of money and
must borrow from others. In Greece scenario, it have been overspending for many years, which I
must assume the latter scenario must have happen.
The last variable is the interest rate. Interest rate is one way government can control the
money supply beside selling bonds. I think it is important to look at it as a way to anaylsis
government influence on the economy. Generally, a high interest rate means the government
want to tighten the the money supply, as it give people incentive to put their money into the bank
or buy bonds. According data, Greece’s central bank have been lowering interest rate for the past
eight years, which means they want to encourage people to use cash and increase money supply.
I assume this is due to the government want to increase economic activities to boost growth.
Overall, the data have been consistent. Four out of five use a graph, and one uses a bar
chart. It is best to show it as year-over-year comparison. it allows you to spot the trend easier
than showing actual values. Also, using a graph is the most simple way to transfer the data.
Modulus 2 : Other variable
For Modulus II, we are ask to collect data on cyclical data. Cyclical data are data that
depends on the business cycles. I choose to analysis two topics: The stock market and GDP from
construction. I believe those two are a good indicator on the business cycle.
First looking at the stock market over the past ten years, we can see that it have been in a
graduate decline since 2008. It could say that the global recession is still happening as the stock
market have not rebound back to its pre-recession era value. Perhaps it means not many people
are willing to invest in the market right now.
Second, I look at the GDP from construction. It have a steady decline since 2008 too. It
seems like not as many people are willing to construct new buildings. This is understandable
since all the previous datas suggest that Greece is in a recession.
On Trading Economic, I am able to find the Economic Indicator for Greece. A quick
glance yields more red numbers than green. By quickly looking at the top five, I can deduce that
Greece is currently in a recession. Its GDP is growing at 0.8 \%, a 23.1 \% unemployment rate, –
0.9 \% inflation rate, 0\% \% interest rate, a trading deficit of -1743 EUR million, and a 177\%
government debt to GDP indicate that Greece economy requires a lot of work.
Source:
Greece | Economic Indicators. Greece | Economic Indicators. N.p., n.d. Web. 29 Dec. 2016.
United Arab Emirates
Module 1
In this module we will analyse the main indicators in order to determine the phase of the
bissenes cycle of the economy in the current time.
We will start by the three recomended indicators GDP, inflation and unemployment rate.
We know that each economy passes though the expansions and recessions. During the expansion
the GDP grouth and employment indicators are growing and falling while the recessions. Lets
have a look at the GDP rate for last 15 years.
We can see that the arab emirates economy has overlived nearly 5 bussines cycles during
the last 15 years.
To better undestand the economy of the country it can be usefull to try to find the
dependencies between the main 3 indicators. Lets have a look on unemployment rate and
make the comparasion with the GDP grouth.
We can notice that unemployment rate continiuosly grows over time, but in the peak of the
huge expansion in 2012 this rate has fallen on 0.4 \%. And it is very logically. Unfortunately
there is no data about the unemployment rate for last 4 years so this indicator can not help
us by analysis of the current situation in the economy.
The last recommended indicator to look at was inflation. So have a look at the data.
With this indicator we got more lucky. We can see that there is a good correlation between
this graph and the GDP rate graph. It can be noticed that huge drop in 2009 in GDP rate
corresponds with huge drop in inflation and with a significant decrease in unemployment
rate. (Acctually in 2008 the prices on oil falled on 60\% and that caused the economy drop
in arab emirates, since the country is heavily dependent on the oil industry).
Module 2
In this module we will have a look at the indixes which represent the economy the best.
Since the natural resources continue to play a central role in the economy, especially
in Aby Dhabi the potential pretendents for good indicators of the bussines cycle will be
gasoline and natural gas. Indeed there is a good correlation between the GDP grouth and the
gasoline and natural gas prices.
Another usefull index appeared to be the consumer spendings index. It can be noticed that that
there is a big correlation, though it is not too sensible to little bussines cycles.
Module 3
In the work above I gathered the info only about the indicators, which are relevant to prediction
of the business cycle, so in this module I won’t through away any of them.
Conclusion
So we can see that the GDP grouth falling slows down, the inflation level, gasoline prices and
natural gas are going up and the consumer spending index is also reaching the minimum. By the
way in can be noticed that the average period of the business cycle is 1.8-2.5 years and the last
peak was about 2 years ago. In my opinion it is a quite reliable signal that the economy is
finishing (slowing down) the recession and is about to begin an expansion.
Joy Kim
Econ103
Portugal Economy
The GDP data and graph was used because it directly provides a visual of the business cycle,
which compares the level of output over time, and a country’s GDP is a good way of looking at
the output. Figure 1 shows that over the last decade, the GDP growth rate is negative since it is
lower now than it was in 2006. Currently, Portugal may be headed down into a recession, unless
the data shows that the 2016 GDP increases, which would be the case due to fluctuations that
occur in many business cycles. In that case, on the business cycle, it is in a trough.
Variable 1- GDP
Figure 1: Quarterly Growth Rate of GDP of Portugal
The inflation rate helped me analyze Portugal’s economy as well. Currently, the inflation rate is
low, which means one euro now has greater purchasing power than one euro in 2013. The
inflation rate helps to understand the country’s economy, as it is closely tied to the
unemployment rate. A decrease in unemployment means there are more people with more
disposable income. Due to this, the amount of money in circulation increases, thereby increasing
inflation.
Variable 2- Inflation Rate
Figure 2: Quarterly Inflation Rate in Portugal (\%)
The unemployment rate in Portugal is high compared to the unemployment rate in other nations
like the US. When comparing the unemployment rate in Figure 3 to the inflation rate in Figure 2,
it is shown that as the inflation rate decreased throughout the decade, unemployment slowly
increased. A large part of this is due to the lack of preparation Portuguese universities and
colleges provided students, making them unemployable. However, in recent years, the
unemployment rate has gone down. The labor force decreased in 2013 and many people
emigrated to other countries to find jobs, which helped reduce the unemployment rate.
Additionally, tourism increased since 2013 and there was a resurgence of the agricultural sector
which gave many people jobs.
Variable 3- Unemployment in Portugal
Figure 3: Unemployment Rate of Portugal (\%)
Labor costs have not increased much since 2006 but, rather, have fluctuated heavily. However,
and increase is still and increase and because labor costs more now than in 2006, companies and
businesses are less likely to hire more people. This correlates with the unemployment rate in
Figure 3. Since labor costs have increased slightly, businesses have hired slightly less people
which thereby increased the rate of unemployment.
Variable 4- Labor
Figure 4: Labor Costs
The corporate income tax rate is collected from companies. The revenues from the tax rate are a
way for the Portuguese government to get its income, which heavily influenced the GDP as
government spending is a part of what makes up with the GDP, alongside consumption,
investment, and net exports. The data shows that the tax rate has decreased over the years, the
highest rate being 55.1 percent in 1983, and the lowest being 21 percent in 2016. The corporate
tax rate has declined, which means the Portuguese government is not as able to spend as before,
contributing to the decline in GDP.
Variable 5- Corporate Taxes
Figure 5: Corporate Tax Rate (\%)
M2 is one of the measures of money supply that includes M1 (money that can be used directly
for transactions), savings accounts, money market accounts, and other near monies. A general
trend seen is that the money supply has increased significantly over time.
Variable 6- Money Supply
Figure 6: Rate of Increase of M2 Money Supply
Figure 7 shows that the interest rate in Portugal increased then decreased significantly, leading to
an all-time low of 0\% in 2016. This data is intriguing because a low interest rate means that it is
easier to buy assets like houses, which would theoretically cause a rise in house prices,
increasing the wealth. This would also theoretically increase families’ disposable income and
raise the GDP by increasing consumption. However, GDP declined over the years instead.
Variable 7- Interest Rate
Figure 7: Interest Rate (\%)
Semester Project Rubric
CRITERIA
COVERAGE
POOR (0
POINTS)
FAIR (5 POINT)
EXCELLENT (10
POINTS)
None of the All but 2 of the All but 1 of the All weeks of the
weeks of the weeks of the
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PROJECT
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Most
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ACCURACY AND
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PROFESSIONA
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Assertions of •
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Assertions of •
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